I have been checking past yearsâ€™ pre-Christmas rainfall, for the purpose of this study the 7-day period from 16th to 22nd inclusive.
This year is third wettest, beaten only by 1995 and 1989. So what does this mean for weather in the new year? Not much, probably, for anyone not a fan of weather forecasting by pattern matching. However, it is interesting to note the weather that followed these two wet Christmas periodsâ€¦ Both were very different.
Things turned very cold at the end of January / beginning of February 1996 â€“ with an â€˜ice dayâ€™ being recorded on January 26. Snowfall during the cold spell wasnâ€™t really anything to write home about.
Anyone who follows the weather will remember that in January 1990 occured the devastating Burnsâ€™ Day storm that was responsible for the death of 97 people across the UK. The month as a whole, and February, was virtually frost free, stormy and very mild â€“ positively balmy at times.
These two polar opposites just go to show that you forecast by pattern matching at your peril â€“ though 1996 gives any coldies reading this hope for the new year.